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Takeover of HBOS falters as state steps in



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Published Date: 13 October 2008
IN A tumultuous day for Scotland's flagship banking industry, the government is poised to emerge as the largest shareholder in both HBOS and the Royal Bank of Scotland today.
HBOS was set to take £12 billion of government money, RBS between £15 billion and £20 billion, Lloyds TSB £5 billion and Barclays £7 billion, with RBS and Barclays expected to seek extra money from outside shareholders to take the overall total for UK banks to £50 billion. The deal casts huge uncertainty over the fate of the Lloyds TSB rescue takeover of HBOS.

HBOS rejected a report last night that the deal had collapsed, but declined to comment on whether the terms would be renegotiated. Shane O'Riordain, head of group communications for HBOS, said: "The deal remains in place and is on track."

Whether or not the takeover goes through, Scotland is set to be left with a banking sector dominated by two banks where the government is majority shareholder, posing huge questions over future competition policy. The government could take seats on the boards of banks, a government source said.

Treasury officials were locked in talks with senior banking figures last night, finalising the deal which is likely to see well over £35 billion of government money used to part-nationalise Britain's four main high-street banks. It is set to provide capital in return for preference shares, which could pay an annual dividend of about 10 per cent but typically do not have voting rights.

Other European countries also prepared to step in to help ailing banks, and leaders met in Paris yesterday to discuss options, racing to throw banks a lifeline before markets reopen.

Sir Fred Goodwin, the chief executive of RBS, is to step down as part of a sweeping regime change. Sir Fred, nine years at the helm of RBS and the man who came to personify Scottish business success worldwide, will be replaced by Stephen Hester, currently the chief executive of British Land.

Today's enormous developments will rewrite the entire financial sector in Britain – and especially in Scotland, home to two FTSE100 banks. And it threatens a deep downturn in Edinburgh as bank operations downsize and subsidiaries are sold off.

The departure of Sir Fred after nearly a decade signals the end of an era in which he took RBS from being a small player on the British scene to being the nation's second largest bank with a market capitalisation greater than Coca-Cola's and with a headcount of 19,000 in Scotland – greater than Scotland's oil and gas industry.

Meanwhile, European leaders meeting in Paris agreed a plan to tackle the banking crisis, saying no big institution will be allowed to fail. They pledged to guarantee loans between banks until the end of 2009, and said they would put money into them by buying preference shares. Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, described the proposals as unprecedented steps.

World governments have been racing to throw banks a lifeline before the major markets reopen today.

News of the rescue plan came after talks between leaders of the 15 countries in the euro currency zone.

Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister, attended parts of the talks although Britain is not a member of the eurozone.

In the United States there was a scramble to save the investment bank giant Morgan Stanley. Action is also under way to save other banks through injections of government capital.

The combined action, running to hundreds of billions of dollars, is a massive global mobilisation to stem the tide of fear and panic that engulfed markets last week.

Both the Tokyo and New York markets are closed today – so Britain and Europe have to take the lead with colossal action that turns round sentiment.

The capital injections are right at the top end of expectations. The authorities dare not risk yet another set of rescue plans being swept aside by markets fearful of a systemic global collapse.

The dramatic announcements come as the International Monetary Fund warned that global equities could plunge by a further 20 per cent in the coming days unless decisive action was taken to deal with the crisis.

Were that to happen, the government would have no choice but to nationalise the entire British banking sector.

TIMELINE

Wednesday 17 September: News breaks that Lloyds TSB is to take over HBOS in a £12.2 billion deal, creating a banking giant holding close to one-third of the UK's savings and mortgage market.

Thursday 18 September: Eric Daniels, the chief executive of Lloyds TSB, confirms the merger would lead to redundancies, although the impact would be "minimal".

Friday 3 October: The First Minister's Council of Economic Advisers meet in Ayrshire to discuss ways to get the best deal for Scotland from the HBOS takeover.

Friday 10 October: Doubts about the Lloyds TSB takeover emerge after Tavish Scott, the Liberal Democrat leader in Scotland, claimed it was no longer "the only deal in town".




Takeover of HBOS falters as state steps in

'Fred the Shred' to step down as RBS chief


Brown finds a career life raft in financial storms

Hester set to land top RBS role as Goodwin pays price for slump

Brown confident of persuading European leaders to adopt UK-style rescue package

Salmond rebuts 'arc of insolvency'

The full article contains 888 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

 
1

Edwardg,

13/10/2008 00:21:18
Will be interesting to see where things go from here. I personally don't think the the Lloyds-HBOS deal will collapse. What is more likely is that the government will nationalise HBOS and sell Hallifax to Lloyds, keeping Bank of Scotland as a regional Scottish Bank.

As for RBS, I'm expecting to see significant disposals over the next two years. The American business will be the first to go. However RBS will be sure to keep hold of Natwest and will still remain one of the big four UK banks, just significantly downsized as an International player (it was formally Europe's second biggest bank after HSBC).

On another note, I wouldn't be too surprised if we see more m&a talk involving UK banks over the next few months, with Barclays and Standard Chartered the most likely pairing.
2

Jock Tamson,

Scotland, Caledonia, Alba 13/10/2008 00:26:32
As long as the banks are able to buy back their freedom from the government then fair and good. This is Britain, mind.

As for the "will they, won't they?" re the takeover of HBOS, wait a few days until the stockmarket decides.
3

Charles Linskaill,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 00:40:00

HBOS, succumbs to Santander's!

Might make more likely reading, as Edward and Jock (above posts) say above, this will be an interesting week-ahead.
4

SkeptikScot,

13/10/2008 00:56:16
#1 Edwardg, good predictions!

And I predict that in Scotland (and in the UK) banking and financial services will become smaller and more conservative. The return of old-fashioned banks and the grumpy bank manager? Our star mathematicians will have to go back to the sciences/engineering - and making things. Not so bad.

Yes, it's possible the government will nationalise HBOS and sell Hallifax to Lloyds (job losses), keeping Bank of Scotland as a regional Scottish Bank. Again, not so bad.
5

famous 15,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 01:04:39
I invested in BOS shares for my retirement. I did not like the association with the barrow boys in Halifax, But I was alone in my disquiet. Now I will have a poor old age. Who do I blame? Dithering Darling. And to think that Brown will have a Falklands rebound! Not if I can help it. Scotland must become INDEPENDENT!
6

Charles Linskaill,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 01:05:53


SkeptikScot ~4,

"keeping Bank of Scotland as a regional Scottish Bank. Again, not so bad."

Not much chance of this happening, being the,...

.... 'Under-Dogs'!

It is unlikely that HBOS will remain remotely Scottish.

It is times like these, when we see our worth!
7

Ugly George,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 01:06:50
4 Skeptik Scot
"Our star mathematicians will have to go back to the sciences/engineering - and making things"

If only this could be the case. The problem is that there will still be opportunities in financial sercvices for them ( actuarial work for insurance etc.) that will be better rewarde than work in science/engineering.
8

Olswang,

Huddersfield 13/10/2008 01:06:51
I would like too see a fraud investigation of the banks. You cannot say they did not know their sorry state finacially and encourged folk to invest in them.Bonuses should be treated as crimminal gains and the state should recover them. Just because some did not know that bonuses were the proceeds of a fraud makes then no less bound to return them to the folks that have been robbed.
9

Ugly George,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 01:12:41
5 famous 15
If you invested a large proportion of your retirement fund in just one company then you really only have yourself to blame. Many companies that are household names and appeared to be sound investments have seen there share price tumble - it happened to Marks and Spencer.

If you were not happy with the merger with Halifax why didn't you sell your shares then?
10

Jock MacSprog,

13/10/2008 01:39:39
9 because he is a nationalist moron who posts under several different names. BOS hasnt been Scottish for about 250 years. It has been BRITISH and has just been bailed out by the BRITISH government. People like famous 15 would rather have us end up like Iceland, Ireland or other micro countries who are now on their knees. Instead we are being supported by the country we are part of, the 5th largest economy in the world, GREAT BRITAIN. Thank god we are or we would be in even bigger trouble now. Oh, and dont think all the valuable North Sea oil which has dropped about 60% in price per barrel in the last month would be bailing us out.
11

doublescotch,

U.S.A. 13/10/2008 03:46:35
You should see the office space HBOS leases in San Francisco! Now wonder where your money went!
12

Robbie 2,

New Zealand 13/10/2008 04:30:17
10 Jock MacSprog
“People like famous 15 would rather have us end up like Iceland, Ireland or other micro countries who are now on their knees.”: AND YET

‘New Zealand-owned banks shrug off global credit crunch.’
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10499515
Yeah I know you’ll manage to find problems with New Zealand (no place is perfect - but many of our problems where truly inherited from a colonial past and we are trying to rectify them). Unionist find things wrong with any nation small and sovereign - even when over and over it is shown that the quality of life is better than large countries.
Many, many Scots live and work in NZ and I know where they’d rather be. We enjoy our micro status but can still choose which wars we refrain from joining!!!
13

Mallory,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 04:54:37
I agree with #8 - time for financial and possibly criminal investigations of the banks and their financial advisors and shill merchants.

Many people must have known of the situation well in advance of the past month.

Did accounting practices and a corporate culture of silence driven by bonus greed seek to protect vested interest?
14

,

13/10/2008 05:01:28
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
15

Pilrig,

Livingston 13/10/2008 05:54:44
Broon and Darling adopt the economic policies of the Militant Tendency, they only kidded on to be Blairites.

Altogether comrades, "The people's flag is deepest red...."
16

Ubi,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 05:56:25
Is Fred to sail off into the sunset exclusively unscathed by his own recklessness?

Surely this fiasco raises some very awkward questions regarding the conduct and candour of RBS, not least in connection with the £12b rights issue which took place only a few months ago.

Is it not in the national interest for a criminal investigation to be instigated? Should Fred's immediate prospects not include a lengthy period of reflection in Saughton?
17

Pilrig,

Livingston 13/10/2008 05:56:39
10 - yep and us Brits just happen to be in hock to national debt to the tune of 18 grand per person.
What a legacy for oor grandchildren.
18

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 13/10/2008 06:11:44
It seems a lot of people are speculating as to how this will all play out. For what its worth these are my predictions?

Will the Lloyds deal go through? No, why would you want to create a SuperBank-Superheadache with 30% of a plummeting UK Mortgage market. That we be a recipe for future demands to keep injecting more and more money over time.

Will Santander make a deal? No, they are not that dumb. They already have quite enough exposure to the UK mortgage market through Abbey.

Will HBOS be Broken Up? Maybe, this would make a lot of sense for Scotland and that it is why I have not given it a yes. If it did break up the Halifax would be better matched with an Institution that is already fixed and has been turning away depositors. Namely Northern Rock. Making it part of Lloyds makes no sense at all because Lloyds still needs a capital infusion. Without Halifax it could raise this money from shareholders, with Halifax its only chance is a government funded recapitalization.

RBS now looks like it may end up majority state controlled, wether it does or doesn't it will have to sell some assets. If a buyer could be found, I am sure that they would love to get rid of Nationwide. With English Property Prices expected to fall 25% over the next 2 year Nationwide will be a constant drain on resources. The question is finding someone dumb enough to buy it. Maybe Gordon Brown? The most likely asset to be sold is their 10% stake in Bank of China, this will fetch the closest value in relation to purchase cost and since it is only a 10% interest it would not be considered strategic. The Citizens Bank in the US will not be sold because it provides a conduit for selling of all their US mortgage junk to the American Government.
19

mcbogtrotter,

mccalifornia 13/10/2008 06:22:16
Have any of you noticed buy backs of any companys, Some in the states are buying their stock back at the bottom, nice way to take the investment and buy it back for pennys on the dollar, sweet use the investors money to buy him out for nothing.
It would appear as though investors are pulling cash to hoard for the buy on the way back up, I think that is what is pulling down the stock market as there is plenty of liquidity, and many banks have substantial cash on hand.
Iam feeling it from the back side again.
20

donald,

glasgow 13/10/2008 06:40:57
The English Parliament should return the Shares to to the Scottish Parliament.
21

Ugly George,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 06:44:59
20 Donald
If they are splashing out £27bn on shares why should they hand them over.
22

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 13/10/2008 06:48:12
#10 Jock MacSprog

What colour is the sky in your World? Is it blue like the real world that the rest of us live in?

"we are part of, the 5th largest economy in the world"

By GDP PPP per capita the UK ranks 22nd. Which is the only number that should matter because it means how much money you have. That's not too "Great."

The UK economy is $2.772 Trillion in Size which is 4% of the worlds economy of $68Trillion.
That doesn't sound very "Great" either.

The UK ranks 2nd in total external debt. Its $10.45 Trillion in external debt is over 20% of the world wide total of $51.78 Trillion. This is the kind of "Great" you don't want

The Growth rate in the last quarter was 0% and is expected to turn negative for the next 8 quarters. This puts you in the bottom quartile. Not "Great".

I don't see anything "Great" about Britain other than Great Big Mess.
23

scottishcoffindodgerno1,

Tram City 13/10/2008 07:14:58
18#The nationwide is not part of RBS.It is an independent building society.It is not part of any credit crunch,the carpetbaggers were not allowed to get their hands on it.all the profits come back to us,THE SAVERS.NO SHAREHOLDERS,YIIPPEEEE.
24

Evan Owen,

Snowdonia 13/10/2008 07:26:13
Halifax was dragged down into the abyss by the crazy ledning practices of the Bank of Scotland which also had a 'branch called 'Bank of Wales', I thought it was quite funny in those days, it is no joke now is it?

Why did that bloke pile his pension pot into one bank? Just because it had 'Scottish' in the title? Must be mad as a hatter, a bit like the national extremist nutters we have to put up with in Welsh Wales.. Devolution is a licence for these nutters to make life impossible for reasonable people.
25

eddylongshanks,

13/10/2008 07:53:20
Lucky Scotland isn't independent otherwise it would have been bankrupted, like Iceland, by these two banks. Fortunately all the good people of the UK will be bailing them out.
26

Rob,

13/10/2008 08:06:50
Let's see what Alex has to say now; the dream is over, perhaps? The idiot Donald (#20) sums up SNP policy - "give us another giveaway"

It won't happen. Bye Bye Caledonian Pie
27

AVRENIM,

Montvalent 13/10/2008 08:09:11
The Union Bank of Scotland (a Glasgow Bank which was taken over by BOS in 1955) could be a more accurate name for the nationalised institution.
28

PJ Walker,

East Lothian 13/10/2008 08:12:03
The former RBS 'golden boy' shows he is nothing more than a dim-witted megalomaniac, taking outrageous risks with other people's money.

He should be locked up, instead, the smug little git walks away with £12,000 per week for life!!!

29

Dr Mike,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 08:18:35
There are very serious questions to be asked of Fred Goodwin who has brought a national institution to its knees. He and his cronies need to answer for their misguided ambitions. As for the knighthood he should leave that in the boardroom when he departs.
30

Corrennie,

13/10/2008 08:20:04
Strange silence from Salmond.

No doubt it will be seen as a great big conspiracy against Scotland.

So much for the much-vaunted Scottish independence of entrepreneur-ship, etc, etc, etc.
31

Andra, Dundee,

13/10/2008 08:22:27
A few people predict an idependant BoS - but surely that would not last long - neither Barclays or HSBC have much presence in Scotland - surely it would be snapped up quickly since it would be too small to do very much.
32

Linda,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 08:22:47
Brown and Darling to blame as their lax financial regulations allowed these Banks to over extend themselves. No Banking crisis in Norway and many other small independent countries.
33

Andra, Dundee,

13/10/2008 08:24:19
#29 AVRENIM
Or maybe just "The Union Bank"!
34

Linda,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 08:25:40
Ireland has committed upto £320 billions to protect its Banking system so even if an independent Scotland had allowed Halifax to takeover Bank of Scotland it would have acted much earlier just like Ireland to save our biggest Banks.
35

Andra, Dundee,

13/10/2008 08:26:06
#26 eddylongshanks and #27 happy english
The Union dividend flows both ways. It just happens to be flowing north this week. After all, that is what it is all about.
36

Andra, Dundee,

13/10/2008 08:29:24
#36 Linda,
There is a difference between offering security (which will hopefulyy not be required in any great amount) and putting up the cash like the UK government is doing.

Would the Irish Government be able to pay out £320 billions if required??????????????????????????????
37

Andra, Dundee,

13/10/2008 08:31:28
#34 Linda
Norway is your last hope since it's the only Arc of Prsperity / Ring of Fire country that you've not heard of banking problems.
However - I thought I read yesterday that they are trying to borrow money from Russia or US.
38

Linda,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 08:32:05
the £320 billion will not be required as the move restored confidence which UK government was too late to do.
39

Linda,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 08:32:43
And the UK borrowed money from IMF.
40

eddylongshanks,

13/10/2008 08:33:47
yep, i agree Andra, lots of people on here don't though.
41

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 13/10/2008 08:38:20
#26
"Lucky Scotland isn't independent otherwise it would have been bankrupted, like Iceland, by these two banks. Fortunately all the good people of the UK will be bailing them out."

How are they going to manage that? the UK has external debt of $189,00 per capita. The debt to GDP ratio is 490%. Who is going to buy Gordon's Junk Bonds? Maybe the IMF?

It is going to be interesting watching Gordon come up with money. He will probably end up just printing it since the UK is Broke.

At least all the Refugees from Zimbabwe will feel right at home.
42

PJ Walker,

East Lothian 13/10/2008 08:46:03
#32 Silencing Salmond takes some doing....Let's be thankful for small mercies!

There's also (thankfully) an amazing absence of any of the SNP loonies who usually respond to these type of articles???!!

'ALBA' Anyone? :) LOL, ROFL, LMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!
43

Green,

Dundee 13/10/2008 08:48:05
43
Kampunghighlander

Good points.
44

Highland Mist,

13/10/2008 08:53:18
Well never though I'd say it but Browns getting my vote. Leadership in action. Mark my words folks he's saved most of you from the soup house.
45

james 1st,

hamilton nz 13/10/2008 08:58:45
#12 robbie
which new zealand owned banks are you refering to
neither anz,westpac ,national nor bnz are new zealand owned
kiwibank is small and is owned by the new zealand government trustbank taranaki small and agsin new zealand owned and some relatively small building societies
asb is also foreign owned
do you really live in new zealand and not know that
46

subrosa,

13/10/2008 09:01:30
# 32

Strange silence from Alex Salmond? Didn't you see the Politics Show yesterday? He was interviewed for 10 minutes on that and it was the UK part of the show. Is that silence? I don't think so.

Just because the Scotsman doesn't quote Alex Salmond it certainly doesn't mean to say he's silent - on any subject.
47

Robert kirkwood,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 09:05:08
Does this mean that Sir Fred Goodwin is one of the spivs?
48

thistle do,

here n' there 13/10/2008 09:06:09
# well said. Big man for big decisions. Despite all the wee moaners blaming Brown for the wrong doings of the financial system. How about blaming Goodwin, his chairman, his head of risk management, his head of investment strategy and all the other little snivilling lackeys and barrow boys who have taken their disproportionate wadge of dough over the past few years.
49

TommyKaye,

UK 13/10/2008 09:16:28
What a a lot of nu labour carp is posted here-

How is that Lloyds, a seemingly well run and conservatively managed bank, has in the space of few weeks gone from being solid and unexposed to the U.S. mortgage market to being nationalised by the government? One wonders if the chairman now regrets meeting Jonah Brown at that party...

Trevor Kavanagh this morning points out that the collapse of Britain's banks was not inevitable, "it hasn’t happened in Canada, Australia or Sweden". So much for Britain being uniquely placed to weather the financial storm.

Gordon designed the regulatory system, Gordon allowed the property bubble to inflate. Gordon's bubble has now popped.

Gordon is spinning that he is leading the world, either he is delusional or deliberately lying, in Europe they are calling the EU-wide rescue plan the "Sarkozy solution".

If any country can honestly claim leadership, it is actually Sweden, the EU plan being based on a nineties solution to a Swedish banking crisis. Gordon, for some reason, needs us to believe he is saving the world.

The one-eyed Snot Gobbler is delusional and vain - pure and simple.

He has fluffed our pensions, sold our gold, and ruined our banks.

Still, as long as we have "unprecedented stability", eh?!


50

Ugly George,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 09:18:12
43 Kampunghighlander
"The debt to GDP ratio is 490%. Who is going to buy Gordon's Junk Bonds? Maybe the IMF?"

Where on Earth do you get this figure from. UK national debt stands at 43% of GDP - a figure recognised by all analysts. This figure is, as you see, well below the 60% which is the limit for Euro entry which some EU countries are approaching.

If your figure was anywhere near accurate UK Gilts would have crashed in value long ago as anybody with any knowledge of the financial markets knows.
51

TommyKaye,

UK 13/10/2008 09:22:17
Gordon Brown's eyesight is causing concern among aides
Gordon Brown is struggling with increasing problems due to his partial sight, it has emerged.

The revelations may be an attempt by Number Ten to explain Mr Browns sometimes blank look!!!!!

The Prime Minister's close friends have revealed that he can only see extremely large print and has needed guidance at public events. There were suggestions that if Mr Brown falls or bumps into something his damaged retina could fail and he would go blind completely.

Mr Brown, who was left blind in one eye after a rugby accident at the age of 16, addressed the problems in an interview when he admitted that he is suffering increasing problems with the other eye and recently had to have a cataract removed.
Appearing stoical, he said he had "enough" sight but admitted: "It does mean when you're speaking to an audience you automatically tend to correct [which direction to look in] so you've got to be careful. If you're reading something you have to look slightly to the side."

Damian McBride, Mr Brown's chief spin doctor until the reshuffle, is quoted as telling the interviewer: 'His sight isn't very good.'


Insiders also revealed that Mr Brown's memos are in huge print and triple spaced while his own handwriting is getting larger. One senior official said: "If I want him to reply to an email, I always make sure it's in at least 36 point." That is five times as large as standard print size.


There is mounting anecdotal evidence that Mr Brown is battling a serious disability. As this newspaper revealed last month, the Prime Minister has been daubing black ink all over the Commons' dispatch box during Prime Ministers' Questions.

Aides have now also revealed that at the Labour spring conference the Prime Minister took a wrong turn off the stage and failed to find the exit.

When he was about to meet a line-up of war veterans recently, the former minister John Reid had to be moved out of the way bec
52

thistle do,

here n'there 13/10/2008 09:22:20
#51 yer no having a good day are ye? Is yer bonus up the spout? Regulation or no regulation, where was the morality?
53

Mcavity1uk,

Stirling 13/10/2008 09:25:45
Don't the SNP realise that the whole 'rescue' effort has been concentrated on undermining Scotland's hopes of independence.
1. At the outset, HBOS brought to itts knees before short selling banned
2.Now, the latest package concentrates on the two Scottish banks and the government's choice to take over HBOS, Lloyds TSB
3.The money will only be available to these banks on condition that the takeover goes ahead.
Wake up SNP!
54

TommyKaye,

UK 13/10/2008 09:27:42
Morality ha ha ha where was the morality when the bombs dropped on Iraq pal where was the morality when Mr Blair thought tobacco advertsing was okay after a one million pound "donation" pal where is the morality of bringing back Peter Mandelson pal.

Morality from Nu Labour the lunatics are running the asylum for sure
55

PJ Walker,

East Lothian 13/10/2008 09:29:59
#48

It's empty cans that, annoyingly, make the most noise
56

Fairfax,

13/10/2008 09:31:39
Linda (34): "No Banking crisis in Norway and many other small independent countries."

Norway is currently negotiating a 41 billion Euro increase in public sector borrowing, in order to support its banks. It's useful to see a non-British view, so here's Le Monde:

http://www.lemonde.fr/la-crise-financiere/article/2008/10/13/le-g7-et-l-eurogroupe-redonnent-espoir-aux-marches_1105994_1101386.html
57

Ugly George,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 09:32:14
55 Mcavityiuk

Oh Dear. Here we go again - another claim of an anti-Scottish conspiracy. Let me get your assertion into some perspective. Are you claiming that Gordon Brown engineered a crisis in the world's banking industries just to scupper Scottish independence. Would he not have found it easier to have Alex salmond kidnapped by Aliens.
58

Marga,

Fife 13/10/2008 09:34:23
Interesting article in the FT about Iceland.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/80f767e4-9882-11dd-ace3-000077b07658.html

It ends:
"The debacle is due to the unexpected severity of the financial crisis and shocking policy errors. But Iceland has excellent institutions and human capital, as well as sophisticated service enterprises. Its people will have to absorb a temporary fall in their high living standards. Its banks will be revived as much smaller institutions, still with highly capable managers. It will ultimately prosper again."

The writer is Professor of Economics at London Business School

Iceland's position doesn't sound so bad, does it, given a rational analysis by a financial specialist, not a political spinner?
59

Fairfax,

13/10/2008 09:35:24
TommyKaye (51): "If any country can honestly claim leadership, it is actually Sweden, the EU plan being based on a nineties solution to a Swedish banking crisis."

To be more accurate, all of the Scandinavian nations successfully part-nationalized their financial sectors during the early-1990s, in response to their earlier, more localized, credit crunch. The Norwegian Bank has an interesting report online:

www.norges-bank.no/upload/import/publikasjoner/skriftserie/33/chapter1.pdf
60

Fairfax,

13/10/2008 09:38:18
Marga (60): "Iceland's position doesn't sound so bad, does it, given a rational analysis by a financial specialist, not a political spinner?"

Portes might be correct, but he has always been remarkably optimistic on Iceland. For a slightly more pessimistic view, read Willem Buiter (a brilliant economist at the LSE):

http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2008/10/icelands-bank-defaults-lessons-of-a-death-foretold/
61

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 13/10/2008 09:42:25
#52 Ugly George

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt
62

TommyKaye,

UK 13/10/2008 09:47:24
Can anyone remind me how much in debt the Nu Liebour are in again is it 17 million pounds?

And they are the people now about to run our banks!
63

Fairfax,

13/10/2008 09:48:26
KampungHighlander (63): "en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt"

To be fair, external debt is not public debt:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

It's also interesting that (i) Ireland's external debt is almost ten times its GDP, (ii) Switzerland's external debt is roughly equal to the UK's in percentage terms.
64

Banana Heid,

Ayrshire 13/10/2008 09:52:44
I will be closing down my RBS account ASAP I don't trust bank managers but I trust the government even less...
65

Central Station,

13/10/2008 09:54:44
I don't understand !!!

Why do our banks need all these tax payer billions ???

I thought we were told they were strong and their problems were only because of the "spivs and speculators" short selling ?????
66

Rob,

13/10/2008 09:59:19
#59 Ugly George. Some unusual looking people were seen in Forres High treet this morning - local police say they are aliens contracted by someone called Brown and are anxious to stabilise a man Alex.
67

TommyKaye,

UK 13/10/2008 10:01:22
Short selling check out who GORDON BROWNS FRIENDS ARE
Paul Myners' Brown's favourite financier, donor and deputy chairman of the Smith Institute, as well as Gordon's personal financial backer during the leadership campaign.


GLG partners declared to the FSA the largest short position in the market, the massive hedge fund profited the most from being short Bradford and Bingley before it went under.

Labour has also taken £1 million from Jon Aisbitt, non-executive chairman of Man Group, Britain's biggest quoted hedge fund group. Derek Tullet, who made his money providing derivatives broking services to hedge funds, also sent £400,000 into Labour's coffers.
68

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 13/10/2008 10:06:05
#65

It doesn't really matter whether it is public or private in this crisis. If no one is willing to lend how is this going to get rolled over? A lot of that debt is all the securitised mortgages and credit card debt that has been done over the last 10 years.

With the UK in recession and property prices plummeting who in their would want to buy it?
69

Ugly George,

13/10/2008 10:09:59
70 KampungHighlander
"With the UK in recession and property prices plummeting who in their would want to buy it?"

Well somebody must because, as I said govt debt, is funded by gilts and if things were as bad as you say they are the price of gilts would have crashed long ago.
70

LondonCalling,

13/10/2008 10:12:52
The sooner you guys get your independence the better. Now mainly English taxpayers have to fork out £31.5 BILLION to save just two of your companies.
71

joppa jock,

Huntingdon 13/10/2008 10:13:22
I'm pleased to see that no mention of the Clydesdale Bank is being made. Perhaps because they're owned by an Australian bank and Australia have very rigorous banking procedures that prohibit the sort of madness that's happened in the UK over the past few years.
72

Geo_1875,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 10:16:16
#44 "LMFAO"

Does that mean your mouth will take it's turn for a change.
73

john z,

edinburgh 13/10/2008 10:17:55
Look, let's be clear, much of the boohaha with darling and broon flitting all over the world was nothing short of political spin. No other European leaders are carrying on like darling and broon. No, this is all just to make broon look like a strong leader. If any regulation of the money markets was required, Brown as chancellor had TEN FULL YEARS to do so.

Witness the nonsense they spouted regarding Iceland, all the rhetoric and sending 'officials' to Iceland. Is anybody falling for this spin?? Does nobody understand that many countries in Europe are affected by the Iceland banks, but are not behaving in a typically colonial way, as the english are, "officials fly to Iceland to demand Britains money back" What utter p*sh.

Britain like verybody else will join the list of creditors. Period. No amount of rara flag waving by broon or darling will make the slightest difference. As for the supposedly threatened court action - what a joke. I bet those icelanders really sat up and took notice. NOT. Do you really think Iceland gives a flying youknowwhat about what Broon and darling say?? Iceland is almost bankrupt, and Broon and Darling just a sideshow.

Isn't it oh so convenient now, that two Scottish banks are being 'rescued' by the English Government. Does the Scottish Government have no say? or are we beholden to the English colonials yet again.

For god's sake Scotland, wake up to how broon and Darling are using this financial crisis to sh*ft the entire Scottish financial sector.

Many people see what is going on. Remember, Brown and his engerlish cronies, have made it clear, 'they will use any available means to preserve the union', and that includes MI5, whose role is to protect the UNITED kingdom.

Civil wars have started for less.
74

The Strategist,

13/10/2008 10:17:59
There is little doubt that the acts of economic lunacy perpetrated by Brown and Bush and originating with Thatcher and Reagan have now infected most parts of the world. In this sense it is as Brown says a global problem but people need to be in absolutely no doubt as to where the source of the problem was.

It is also hugely disingenious of Brown to try to give the impression that he has now saved the world. There were in fact only two choices. Do nothing or bail the banks out. He chose to bail the banks out. No great saviour like decision and of course it wouldn't have been his solution anyway but was almost certainly put together by Treasury officials.

Brown has a lot to answer for. He very nearly brought the UK economy to its knees but even worse, he and Bush nearly brought the world economy to its knees. He must not be allowed to forget this and neither must the general public.

One word of warning... RBS and others are already saying they intend increasing lending levels to 2007 levels... That would be suicidal.
75

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 13/10/2008 10:24:10
#71 Ugly George

"Well somebody must because, as I said govt debt, is funded by gilts and if things were as bad as you say they are the price of gilts would have crashed long ago"

You could have said the same about US CDO's 18 Months ago. Just because people will by Gilts today does not mean they will when it becomes apparent the the UK Government is in the process of underwriting all private debt through guarantees.


76

Alan B,

13/10/2008 10:24:13
Brown should resign. How can a failed chancellor with no credibility left continue to lead the country.

The UK like the US seem to be in the group of countries that will be worst effected due to gross mismanagement of the economy.

Brown knew of these problems last year with the failure of NR. Brown should have acted then to ensure the banks had enough liquidity to survive. Delay and dither your way into a crisis and it will be 10times as hard to get out of it.
77

Alan B,

13/10/2008 10:26:11
#john z

" No other European leaders are carrying on like darling and broon."

That is largely because they are not in the same mess. Yes all countries are effected by the crisis but countries like the UK are much more exposed due to Browns economic lunacy.
78

SimonHurrll,

13/10/2008 10:26:58
And How much will the former CEO of RBS get?

A continuous £12,000-00 per week pension (£624,000-00 per year) index-linked for life.

A handsome bonus £5,0000,0000-00 bonus.
Wouldn't you accept that?

And another well-paid Institutional Job probably at the FSA!
79

Ugly George,

13/10/2008 10:28:58
79 KampungHighlander
"Just because people will by Gilts today does not mean they will when it becomes apparent the the UK Government is in the process of underwriting all private debt through guarantees."

Well if this is all knowledge to you then it must be knowledge to everybody in the market or are you sharing insider info with us. So why has the price of gilts not crashed?
80

Alan B,

13/10/2008 10:34:29
#Central Station

"Why do our banks need all these tax payer billions ???"

They need these billions as they funded huge mortgage lending growth in the uk via the credit markets rather than through deposits. This strategy has failed with the credit markets drying up ie no interbank lending. As these banks have to re-finance their loans they are unable to do so.

Other countries are not in such a big mess as they have not had the massive house price inflation and massive increase in mortgage debt. eg Germany. Countries like Australia are in much better shape as they regulated their banks in a much tighter way.

So all in all the failure of Brown to control house price inflation and the silly mortgages given, along with the complete failure of his new regulatory framework for the financial sector when he removed responsibility from BOE has led to this mess being so bad in the UK.

re "Spivs and Speculators". Brown and the US banned that practice for a period to try to get through this crisis. The practice of short selling points out weaknesses in the banks and allowed the banks to be picked of. It also reduced the time that the government could act to help form rescue plans.

Unfortunately the delays by Brown have made all the problems far worse.

81

DAVID,

Edinburgh 13/10/2008 10:38:40
A few points for people to think about.

1) What about all the outstanding credit derivatives that RBS has? When are we going to get a true picture of these so we can gauge exactly what exposure they have here. Continuing uncertainty on this figure is the true underlying reason why banks won't lend to each other as nobody, not even the regulators, knows how much each bank is in hock to their peers for.

2) RBS has basically lied to investors and the markets recently, in total denial about the need to raise more capital and agreeing with idiot politicians e.g. Salmond with claims that it was robust and the victim of speculation. Total rubbish it turns out.

3) No short selling behind RBS downfall, just the market correctly suspecting that all was not as healthy as it was letting on. Duplicitous, deceitful, egregious behaviour from RBS?

4) Will RBS now be covered by the Freedom of Informatiom Act so us taxpayers can find out exactly what is going on inside it e.g. exposure to certain markets, products, salary & bonus structures?

5) Executive and Board level bonuses are a distraction. Will steps now be taken to rein in the compensation paid to a wide variety of traders, marketers, M&A people, etc etc? These guys earn just as much as Goodwin et al but with far less transparency.

Thoughts / comments?
82

Scotfree,

Erskine 13/10/2008 10:48:23
I think the main outcome of these events is not going to be the demise of the Scottish banking sector but will be seen as the end of the City of London as a major global bourse, the end of the Bank of England as a perceived lender of last resort and centre of Central Banking excellence and the Pound Sterling as a major trading currency. Alex Salmond has reflected the mood of most Scots and certainly most nationalists in stating he sees no future for Scotland in remaining with the pound and would now rather take the Euro as the future currency of Scotland.
None of these three English institutions is capable or willing to enable Scotland to expand its European or Global business interests. This is not a purely Scottish change of opinion. It has been commented that the city of London was sustained over the last ten years by the inflow of money from China, India and the Middle East and that the end of that flow is the main cause of the current crisis. It is unlikely given the incompetence and treachery and barefaced fraud we have seen from the City and UK government over the last months that the flow is likely to recommence. This incidentally, makes the financing of the billions required for the government takeover of Scottish assets look decidedly dodgy, particularly as the main source of collateral, Scotland oil is no longer going to be available to them,
Reflecting on this with a mere six months of Scotland’s oil revenues being able to purchase the entire British banking sector it is likely that Scottish banks would most like move to Frankfurt or an equivalent bourse in Edinburgh. In simple terms this would leave the three institutions of the pound the City of London and The Bank of England isolated, in a small corner of Europe based on economy the size of Spain with no collateral backing for it's trades, and populated by non-dom tax exiles, Russian mafia and other fraudsters and economic refugees of dubious repute. Which major investment block is even going to co
83

Mcavity1uk,

Stirling 13/10/2008 10:49:35
59
No, but gordon Brown and Co have lost no time in using the present crisis to his very best advantage by concentrating on and using it to gain firm control of Scotland for the foreseeable future.
84

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 13/10/2008 11:04:20
#83 Ugly George

"Well if this is all knowledge to you then it must be knowledge to everybody in the market or are you sharing insider info with us. So why has the price of gilts not crashed?"

Its a gradual process but it has already started. The Pound Sterling is now at 1.70 USD and falling. What was it at last year? Your trading at near all time lows to the Euro. Your Banks are in freefall and on the verge of being nationalized and the FTSE100 closed below 4000 for the first time since December 19th 1996. And you are still yet to go through a 2 year depression and a 25% drop in house prices.

If you don't think that is a vote on what the rest of world thinks about UK PLC's chances I don't know what else might convince you.

Your economic miracle of the last 10 years has been built on a mountain of debt. You have to give to Brown though, rather than be like former Labour Chancellors that added debt to the public purse, he tricked the British public to go into hawk instead.

But know the party is over and the lending window is closed, the UK is just going to have to live within its means.

Its good that they are coming out with national identity cards, it might stop a black market forming around the ration coupons.

85

Central Station,

13/10/2008 11:08:47
#85 Alan B

The point I was making was that the inference from our First Minister was that the Scottish Banks were sound and strong institutions whose problems were down to the "spivs and speculators".

It Seems that Mr Salmond was wrong and that the problems are somewhat more fundamental!

86

Mikey,

13/10/2008 11:13:04
Lots of Liebore clones on here this morning moaning about Salmond not doing anything. Now we all know these clones are the most stupid and selfish people on earth, akin to the US Republicans, but maybe one of them, ina lucid moment, can tell me what Salmond can do about the crisis, since financial matters are reserved?

After that, they can maybe remind me who is responsible for financial matters while Scotland is part of the UK?
87

Son of one of Stirlings finest,

Weston S Mare 13/10/2008 11:22:10
Scotfree 88#
Bovine Spongiform Encaphalopathy, I see your still eating the beefburgers.

88

Ursus arctos horribilis,

13/10/2008 11:22:19
#86-The auction of Lehman debt w