IT HAS been described as the most important Scottish historical film since Braveheart but, like the epic starring Mel Gibson, it seems certain to be filmed in Ireland.
Last-ditch talks have been held between the makers of Mary Queen of Scots and film agency Scottish Screen to try to reach a deal on shooting the movie on home soil.
But the tempting tax incentives offered on the other side of the Irish Sea are li
kely to prove too tempting to the makers of Mary Queen of Scots, who have already decided to cast an American, Bryce Dallas Howard, in the title role.
To make matters worse, Scotland on Sunday can also reveal that a remake of Lassie Come Home will be shot in Ireland and the Isle of Man, despite a vow by director Charles Sturridge to return the movie to its Scottish roots.
Again, generous tax incentives offered by governments elsewhere are being blamed for the loss of potentially lucrative movie-making deals.
Other films set in Scotland, and England, could follow suit and relocate in countries with more attractive financial incentives, or simply collapse, as the industry faces up to financial restrictions and uncertainties.
Film producers thinking of coming to Scotland are facing a financial double whammy. Scotland cannot match incentives elsewhere, while the existing UK tax reliefs are due to end this summer.
The government has promised a replacement scheme, but the industry is still waiting for details. And producers are wary after the experience last year when the government made changes overnight, leading to the collapse of some films.
The idea for Mary Queen of Scots began in Scotland with producers Catherine Aitken and Gill Parry, shortly after the release of Braveheart. They commissioned a screenplay from Cracker writer Jimmy McGovern and Sir Sean Connery was involved as co-producer.
The film looked dead when McGovern got involved in a BBC television drama on the same subject, but it now has the backing of Warner Brothers, and Howard, daughter of actor-director Ron Howard and star of The Village, has been cast as Mary.
Aitken, who retains the title of executive producer, said she hoped it would shoot in Scotland, but Warners has agreed a deal with an Irish production company and now stands to benefit from financial incentives there.
The film is being made by Warner Independent Pictures, the studio’s up-market "speciality" wing, where a tighter rein is kept on costs and $20m is the upper limit on budgets.
Claire Chapman, head of production at Scottish Screen, said she met Warners’ representatives in London in an attempt to persuade them not to make a final decision.
She said: "Their whole plan is to go to Ireland and get 10% [tax relief] and I left them saying that I would do everything that I could possibly do to try and match that."
Lassie Come Home is an independent Anglo-American production, budgeted at about £5m. The original novel was set largely in Scotland, though the 1943 film - which turned Elizabeth Taylor into major star - was shot in California.
An informal approach was made to Scottish Screen for support, but the agency was concerned the only Scottish element was the locations.
Director Charles Sturridge, whose previous credits include the television adaptation of Brideshead Revisited, said: "The economic arguments were the most powerful.
"One of the key reasons that the film has moved to Ireland is uncertainty over the whole British tax structure."
Sturridge added that even if they had secured support from Scottish Screen it was not comparable to what was on offer elsewhere in the form of tax incentives and cash in hand.
Chapman, at Scottish Screen, said: "Charles is absolutely right. There is no way we could match the financial incentives that they can jointly get from the Isle of Man and Ireland.
"Ireland can provide 10%. The Isle of Man, as far as I am aware, can provide up to 25% of whatever it is they spend in the Isle of Man.
"This [tax relief] is something that’s causing great grief right across the board but it’s nothing to do with us."
Tim Willis, of the producers’ association PACT, said: "There is a black hole in film production in the UK looming over the summer. We are imploring the Treasury to clarify what is going to happen as soon as possible.
"Independent film financing is effectively paralysed. It’s very worrying. I think that film production is going to be significantly down."
Ian Thomson, of the UK Film Council in London, said production levels were already down, possibly as a result of earlier tax changes.
"That has set the industry slightly on edge," he said. "When these things go into the Treasury the door closes till they spit it out the other end."
Producers and executives seem determined to avoid the word crisis, but everyone agrees the industry is being badly hit by the uncertainty.
Patrick Frater, international editor of the trade paper Screen International, said that while some films may relocate in Ireland or elsewhere, others may not happen at all.